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predictions are so difficult, especially about the future

All those predictions about Russia walking away with the gold–into the memory hole.

The Russians have lost to the French 2.5-1.5 while Armenia beat the Ukraine by the same score. Armenia now has a 3 point lead with four rounds to go. And China leads Georgia 3-0 and moves into second place.

The U.S. hopes are fading fast. They’re even so far against the Czech Republic and Nakamura is down a pawn in the one game left. Before the event, I predicted that the seventh seeded U.S. team would either seriously contend for a medal or not be in the top ten (I used Douglas Adams’s concept of the “recipriversexcluson” which is defined as being anything other than itself). They were not about to finish seventh or close to it. I’m beginning to think I may have been wrong there too.

And things are not going so well for the U.S. women; they’re down 2-0 against the Ukraine (the remaining game is a rook-and-pawn ending and therefore presumptively drawn).

How’s this for an upset. The Italian C team has manage to tie the Italian A team; their top board was 44 points below their opponents’ fourth board.

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