There will be a lot of economic activity that is recovered very quickly as workers are recalled into preexisting jobs. But beyond that, things are also looking good. The long Obama-Trump growth spell got us back to near the last peak in employment. And unlike the last two booms, it doesn’t appear that this growth has been fueled by an asset-value bubble, so it may not pop, but employment may hang near the effective full-employment point, which will be really good for getting employers to raise wages, train workers, and increase productivity.
On the longer scale, globalization has pretty much run its course. There’s only one China, and there seem to be no remaining countries that can rapidly pull workers into the international market. This is probably the best news for American workers since about 1975. I’m sure it’s good for American politics as well.
I don ‘t know. There’s the whole continent of Africa. They should be able to undercut China on wages. The infrastructure isn’t there yet but it’s being built, ironically by the Chinese.
There’s all of Africa (1.2 billion) and South Asia (1.9 billion) compared to China’s 1.4 billion, but the difference seems to be that neither of those has a government capable of installing an export-based manufacturing economy quickly. The East Asian countries seem to be uniquely capable at frog-marching the entire economy into a modern system.
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